Monday, June 15, 2026

Published writings

This blog post is a list of my published writings at places other than my blogs and social media (and not counting Wikipedia contributions). As of now (2026-06-15), all of those have been for mises.org, so this blog post is redundant with respect to my author page at mises.org, but it will be kept up-to-date, as I have been keeping my personal page up-to-date.

I have gotten some opinion pieces published by the Mises Wire:

I also got an opinion piece published by the Mises Institute’s other publication, Power & Market:

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Red and blue buttons

On 2026-04-24, Tim Urban came up with a version of Lisatomic’s son’s old question (from 2023-08-13) about the red and blue pills. The question was, basically: there’s a red and a blue pill, everyone picks exactly one, and if more than 50% choose the red pill then whoever picks the blue pill dies (if anyone). In Tim Urban’s version, it’s buttons to press instead of pills to take, and it’s everyone on earth instead of only the X/Twitter poll-takers.

I did not see it immediately because I have Tim Urban muted, but it eventually went so viral that I had to take notice of it. The question quickly became known as “the button test”. I don’t like this, because I dislike that Lisatomic’s young son’s creativity got overshadowed by Tim Urban’s ripoff. A version involving account bans was run on Glosso, of which I’m a member. (I chose blue on Glosso, for reasons which I posted to the site, which are different from my reasons regarding the original problem.)

Recapitulating my reasoning

None of my moral reasoning about the question has changed since my 2024-11-26 post about the original variant with the pills. To summarize it: If you’re good and not evil, your only concern is to be as little culpable as possible in outcomes with deaths (outcomes with no deaths can be disregarded). Deaths only happen if we have both RW (Red Win) and FRU (Failure of Red Unanimity), where RW means Reds are majority (a moral problem for Reds) and FRU means the population is not unanimously Red (a moral problem for Blues). Since both are required, neither side is uniquely to blame. But each Blue only contributes to FRU in that he adds himself to the death count (culpable for 0 or 1 deaths), while Reds are each partly responsible for the whole death count via the RW (and this must work like conspiracies to commit murder, where each conspirator gets convicted of as many counts of homicide as the conspiracy as a whole committed). Since the total death count, if nonzero, is necessarily ≥1 and likely >1, the correct answer is Blue regardless, since that option is culpable for fewer deaths. (See the 2024 post for comparison of these assumptions about culpability with alternative ones, which I found implausible.)

It is worth highlighting that my reasoning was threshold-independent. I do not choose Blue because it is likely to work for saving everyone. I do not care whether anyone is saved. I want to minimize my culpability if deaths happen, and I do not care whether they do actually happen; it is wrong to choose Red even if the threshold for Blue “winning” is 80% or 99% rather than 50%.

To emphasize this, I have sometimes compared the problem to this: “Everyone in group will kill everyone in grouB tomorrow. Which group do you want to join?” Here it is clear that no one dies if everyone joins only A or if everyone joins only B; but it is extreme to hope for either kind of unanimity, especially with large populations. In this, it is like the pills/buttons problem, but with the threshold raised to 100% (which accurately conveys my disregard for thresholds) and the action of killing made explicit (since I have indeed reasoned that the original does involve homicide by the participants). Here my assumptions about culpability can be made perfectly clear:

  1. it does not seem plausible to take away culpability from participants just because none of them set up the “A will kill B” situation, and
  2. it is very clear that joining B is morally better, since “it is better to suffer an injustice than to commit one”.

Reds are evil

All this time since my 2024 post, I already thought Reds were morally worse due to the reasoning indicated. (I was already pro-Blue before I made the 2024 post, but with somewhat less explicit reasoning.) But this has not been very important in my mind. Most people are pro-murder in one way or another; it is a wretched world.

Observing the conversations since Tim Urban’s viral variant has made me more alert, however, to independent reasons why Reds are morally worse, due to different kinds of dishonesty that showed up often during the Red-Blue arguments, and only ever on the Red side.

  1. Analogies that introduce uncertainty that wasn’t in the original. Already on 2023-08-14, we had seen Roko’s blender variant, but these dishonest analogies, designed to instill doubt that reaching the threshold will even truly work to prevent the deaths (which doubt is not allowed by the original statement), have only become more prevalent since the Tim Urban variant (see thread on this). I have seen analogies to drinking poison so that an antidote is administered, jumping in front of train tracks to ensure the train will be stopped, etc.
  2. Self-centered framings of the question. Framings such as, “Red: you live, Blue: you maybe live”. (Here is a popular one.) This presupposes that your own survival is somehow privileged, which is an assumption which it is always extremely wrong to even slightly consider.
  3. Dismissing the entire concept of morality, and/or of valuing it more than life. It is one thing to defend that Reds are somehow less culpable than Blues for whatever reason. But something only Reds ever did, and Blues never did, was to dismiss the entire concept of morality, and mock persons who valued being moral for holding moral values, and/or for holding these values above their own survival.

For these reasons, which are only indirectly connected to their choice, I am very willing to have a lower opinion of the character of Red-choosers as a generality. Empirically, and not a priori, I have determined that there is something terribly wrong with the kind of mind that chooses Red, which makes Red-choosers much less pleasant persons to be around; as usual with empirical so-called knowledge, I have no idea why.

This was part of my reason for choosing Blue on Glosso; I don’t really want to be on a social media website where I mostly have to talk to these vicious Red-choosing people. I truly do not appreciate their existence, and I doubt anyone else does.

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Newcomb’s problem is incoherent

It was in August–September 2025 that I first got curious enough to really think about Newcomb’s problem, and I really nerded out. I went through a lot of relevant literature. I extensively revised the Wikipedia article “Newcomb’s problem” (which had been titled “Newcomb’s paradox” before I retitled it) and added several illustrations, of which the main one seems to have been shared severally on social media and become instantly canonical. I was already convinced that the problem can’t happen in real life, and I wrote a blog post insisting on this at length while citing several academics (in retrospect, not very clearly for all that).

In conversation with a British girl named Rowan, I thought a little harder about how to explain why I think Newcomb’s problem can’t happen as a decision problem (regardless whether predictors are possible in general). The things I said in the conversation were also somewhat confused, but here is the best explanation I have as of now.

Let’s say choices are sets of boxes, so the possible sets are $\{\}, \{A\}, \{B\}, \{A, B\}$. Your choice is called $C$, the optimal choice is $O$, and the predictor is a function $\text{predicted}(C)$.

The problem is about coherence between these four assumptions:

  1. We know that the predictor is accurate: $\text{predicted}(C) = C$
  2. We know that we will do whatever choice we think is best: $C = O$
  3. We know what choice $O$ we think is best.
  4. We don’t know what the predicted choice, $\text{predicted}(C)$, is.

Suppose by our reasoning we think that one-boxing is optimal, i.e., $A ∉ O$, and we know this and also know we will do the optimal thing, i.e., $O = C$. Then by the axiom of extensionality, we know that $A ∉ C$. But if we know that $A ∉ C$ and also know that $\text{predicted}(C) = C$, then we know that $A ∉ \text{predicted}(C)$. But this means we know that the predictor has predicted one-boxing.

If we know this, it seems two-boxing is again optimal, i.e., $A ∈ O$. But if we had started out by thinking two-boxing is optimal, then we also, by parallel reasoning, know that $A ∈ \text{predicted}(C)$, i.e., we know the prediction (so it’s no wonder we think two-boxing is optimal). It seems, then, that we can’t be a situation where all four assumptions are true. To spell this out:

  1. If we know that the predictor is accurate, then either we can’t know that we will do what we think is best, or at any rate we can’t know what it is that we think is best, or we can know what the predictor predicted and can act accordingly.
  2. If we know that we will do what we think is best, then either we can’t know what it is that we think is best (and will do), or we know that the predictor isn’t accurate, or we can know what it predicted and can act accordingly.
  3. If we know what choice it is that we think is best, then either we can’t know that we will actually carry it out, or we know that the predictor isn’t accurate, or we can know what it predicted and can act accordingly.
  4. If we can’t know what the predictor predicted, then either we know that the predictor isn’t accurate, or we can’t know that we will do what we think is best, or we can’t know what it is that we think is best.

I personally think none of these four coherent situations are truly Newcomb’s problem. So it seems that a situation, to be truly Newcomb’s problem, must be incoherent: it has to realize conditions that cannot be realized at the same time.

Saturday, April 18, 2026

On the Profit of Believing, as a Trump speech

On the Profit of Believing, folks. Tremendous profit.

On the Profit of Believing, by Saint Augustine, is my favorite text, but I worry that the archaic language in any accurate translation turns most readers off. And I care more about popularity than about accuracy, so I wanted a translation that sacrificed accuracy for ease of reading. I achieved this in a funny way by converting it to a Donald Trump speech using Kagi. The base text was the English one from NPNF. Footnotes were suppressed, and so was the paragraph numbering, although I might reintroduce either at some point. I made some vocabulary changes, changing “Donald” to “Augustine”, “curious” to “nosy”, and “opinion” to “conceit”.

Illustration for this blog post, made with Nano Banana.

Monday, March 16, 2026

LessWrong culture and Eliezer Yudkowsky

There are many problems with LessWrong culture, in general:

There are also many problems with Eliezer Yudkowsky, in particular, aside from sharing the above:

  • He was wrong about a variety of things that were central to his famous sequences of blog posts, such as heuristics and biases, etc.
  • He was dismissive of academic philosophy (and apparently still is).
  • He claimed that (it seemed to him that) “telegrams were the optimal level of social communication technology, and society began to disintegrate after voice radio was invented, though not to the same extent as it began to collapse after television.”

Now, to be fair, aren’t there also some things that they are right about, or valuable thoughts that they have?

No, there aren’t any, as far as I know.

Thursday, March 12, 2026

Reply to Lester

This blog post is a reply to a post by JC Lester, which was replying to a post in which I replied to him, because he wrote a post that replied to a post in which I discussed a 2019 paper he wrote. In case that seems hard to follow, here is an ordered list of the sequence of events:

  1. JC Lester, in 2019, wrote this paper.
  2. On 2026-01-28, I read the paper and posted about it on X/Twitter.
  3. On 2026-02-17, JC Lester replied to my post.
  4. On 2026-02-18, I replied preliminarily to JC Lester’s reply, addressing only the contents of the post itself and not the various papers and articles Lester linked from it. I promised to give a fuller reply later.
  5. On 2026-02-20, JC Lester replied to my preliminary reply, in two parts: part 1 and part 2.

This post, then, is the promised fuller reply to JC Lester’s replies. It is structured as an article about his views and my views, however, which I hope makes it more interesting to third-party readers, and is at any rate easier for me to write than a linear point-by-point rebuttal.

Infographic based on JC Lester’s 2023 paper, originally posted here.

Contents

1. Introduction

I think I have much in common with JC Lester. For instance:

  • Lester is a libertarian writer, and I am also a libertarian.
  • Although Lester has published in academic journals, he seems to feel himself to be at the margins of academia, and I have felt similarly as a non-academic.
  • In his last reply to me (part 1), he expressed a wish that there were more criticisms of his theories, and I have had similar wishes before.
  • Some of his writings have been in the style of dictionary entries, which is a style I have sometimes attempted as well, aside from my actual contributions to Wikipedia and Wiktionary.

The main thing that attracted me to his writings was the overall shape of his core theory, which he described, in the title of his 2019 paper, as “an abstract eleutherology plus critical rationalism”. (An “eleutherology” means a theory of liberty; the 2023 paper gives the name of “eleutheric-conjectural libertarianism” to his overall social theory.) As he described it in the 2019 paper:

An adequate philosophical theory of libertarianism needs to make the following distinctions:

  1. An abstract theory of interpersonal-liberty-in-itself that is independent of any type of property (i.e., ownership), or normativity.
  2. The practical and contingent, derived, objective applications of the abstract theory.
  3. The separate moral and value defences of the abstract theory and its objective applications.
  4. At every stage the abandonment of ‘supporting justifications’ in favour of critical rationalism, which explicitly uses conjectures and criticisms.

Regarding the first point, in my first engagement with the paper, I criticized Lester’s insistence (you see it in many of his writings) on the great importance of defending a specific conception of ‘liberty’, which, as he clarified to me, he thinks is a concept as central to libertarianism as the concept of ‘utility’ is central to utilitarianism. If the reader is acquainted with libertarian writings and does not believe that the concept is as central as that, Lester simply sees this possibility as a flaw in the mainstream libertarian writings, which are obfuscating the central concept.

What I found attractive was the move from step 1 to step 2. Lester takes his concept of liberty and derives both the norm of self-ownership and the norm of external private property from it, as required to maintain liberty (though not necessarily yet at that stage, morally required). For whatever reason, I found this derivation reminiscent of section 2 of my ethics, where I took a concept of agency and derived the libertarian property norms from it (already as morally required, due to the prior development leading up to it).

This got me to look at more of his work and to comment on it. Lester replied, here and here and here, and made an X (Twitter) account to notify me. I thought that was pretty cool and a good opportunity to clarify some points. So I am replying to his replies, as well as talking about his work more generally. I will do so, and then explain my own approach a bit more to answer some of his questions.

Infographic based on JC Lester’s 2019 paper, originally posted here.

2. Review of Lester’s libertarian theory

I will review JC Lester’s libertarian theory regarding his defense of external property, punishment and damages, and intellectual property.

2.1. Does absence of impositions imply libertarian private property?

Although I was interested in the derivation of property from liberty that Lester presented, I have lost my confidence in precisely that aspect of his work. I will explain the problems with it. In the 2019 paper, Lester had theorized liberty as “the absence of interpersonal proactively-imposed constraints on want-satisfaction”. (Lester doesn’t like it if you say ‘defined’, preferring ‘theorized’.) In the 2023 paper, he prefers the phrasing “initiated” rather than “proactively-imposed”, which he seems to see as synonyms, with “proactive” standing to “reactive” as “initiated” stands to “responsive”. As alternative phrases, he also refers to “want-satisfaction” as “preference-satisfaction”, to “constraints on want-satisfaction” as “imposed costs” or “impositions”, and sometimes to “costs” as “losses”. I will use these phrases interchangeably as indicated.

Here’s the problem I see with this now. In his 2023 book Social Anarchism and the Rejection of Moral Tyranny, Jesse Spafford formulated the following idea, which is very similar to Lester’s idea of liberty:

The Moral Tyranny Constraint – A theory of duties is acceptable only if full compliance with that theory would not allow any person to unilaterally, discretionarily, and foreseeably act in a way that would leave others with less advantage than they would have possessed had the agent made some other choice. (Spafford 2023, p. 69)

Spafford says that the word advantage “should be understood to not have any specific content but, rather, function as a placeholder for whatever one takes to be the relevant currency of distributive justice” (Spafford 2023, p. 71). For compatibility with Lester, we should read “less advantage” as “more constrained want-satisfaction”. Then we can see the problem. Spafford argued, throughout his book, that original acquisition of external private property, since it allows the owner to exclude others from the property, leaves others with less advantage than if the agent had not homesteaded the property. I believe this is true, however advantage is conceived of, including Lester’s preferred preference-utilitarian way. And it is proactive/initiated, not reactive/responsive. How does Lester answer this?

Infographic based on Jesse Spafford’s social-anarchist theory, originally posted here.

Lester seems to consider his 2023 paper “a clearer account” than his 2019 paper, but he spends more space on the derivation of external property in the 2019 paper, and it seems more enlightening on his ideas on that, so I will quote from there. In the 2019 paper, Lester says:

Once we have begun to use a natural resource for some purpose, then it typically proactively imposes a significant cost on us if someone takes that resource from us or uses it in a way that flouts our purposes. By possessing and controlling it we might proactively impose a cost on other people too; but this is mainly to the, usually small and reciprocal, extent of the unmodified resource’s want-satisfaction value to them. For to be denied a benefit that someone else has somehow produced—such as a wooden cabin—is not in itself to be proactively imposed on. Therefore, it appears that the least proactive imposition on people’s preference-satisfactions is usually to allow ultimate control to the initial user, and thereafter control by voluntarily agreed transfer (as mentioned above, these interpersonal comparisons plausibly assume only that people are very broadly similar in their responses to certain fundamental choices). Assuming the theory of liberty, this entails that it usually maximally observes, or instantiates, liberty to have personal ultimate control of external resources where one has initiated a use (or subsequently received them by voluntarily agreed transfer). This factual and contingent consequence is also before needing to assume the legal institution of property (or needing to assume morals). However, in order better to protect liberty, it is efficient to institute property rights in such resources. (Lester 2019, pp. 106–107)

That paragraph includes references to eight footnotes arguing with reviewers about the wording and substance of this argument, which I have omitted, so you should check the paper if you think some obvious criticism was overlooked here. However, I believe my comments on it are not addressed in that back-and-forth, as follows.

  • There is one strain in Lester’s ideas that really wants to call the exclusion of latecomers a “withheld benefit” rather than an “imposed cost”. It does not seem that he can defend this difference in terminology without assuming his conclusion. It is a constraint on want-satisfaction, and it is not done in self-defense, unless you include the defense of your property into self-defense. But then here there is a danger that Lester is building the libertarian theory of property into the requirement for a cost/constraint’s being “imposed”, and hence assuming his conclusion from the outset.
  • There is a different strain in Lester’s ideas, however, that concedes that the exclusion of latecomers is an imposition; “by possessing and controlling it we might proactively impose a cost on other people too”. However, the latecomers’ interference with homesteaded property also imposes a cost. In Lester’s telling, it is inevitable, in a conflict over property, that some costs are imposed on someone. The libertarian property-norm, then, does not achieve the “absence of impositions” but the “minimization of impositions”.

This is similar to his move regarding the “minimization of aggression principle”, where he claims that there are conflicts over property where some aggression is inevitable, and hence the best we can apply is not the libertarian NAP (nonaggression principle) but its more pragmatic cousin, the MAP (minimization of aggression principle). This is an underexplored area; it is unclear whether aggression is ever inevitable in mainstream libertarian theory. But it does seem clear that, given conflicting wants, someone’s want-satisfaction has to be constrained. Lester’s idea, then, is that liberty consists in minimizing the constraints.

Infographic of JC Lester’s view on the minimization of aggression principle (MAP), originally posted here.

2.2. Does minimization of impositions imply libertarian private property?

For Lester, in the above quote from the 2019 paper, minimizing constraints implies respecting libertarian private property, because allowing first-users to exclude further users imposes smaller costs on the further users than disallowing exclusion imposes on the homesteaders. This is a complex claim, so to be clearer (to myself if to no one else), I will write this as a formula. For any given rivalrous resource, let there be a first-user (homesteader) $H$, and a set of later would-be users $L={1,\dots,n}$. Define an institutional regime $E$, where the first-user may exclude others from interference with the resource (exclusive control), and a different institutional regime $N$, where later users may not be excluded (open access / forced sharing / common use). Let $u_j(\cdot)$ be the person $j$’s utility (want-satisfaction) under the regime in question, holding fixed the same physical world and preferences. Then the relevant claim seems to be this:

$$ \forall i\in L:\quad u_i(N)-u_i(E) \;<\; u_H(E)-u_H(N) $$

Notice that we had to use minus signs to write this out. Lester, in the 2019 paper, isn’t just making an interpersonal utility comparison (the different sides of the $<$ are different persons, hence this is interpersonal) but also a comparison between intrapersonal differences in utility between different institutional regimes. This is inevitable to the claim he is making. And very likely, given his comments on cases where “the public” is affected (pollution, etc.), he might sometimes not want to only make the pairwise claim (each latecomer’s loss is smaller than the homesteader’s loss) but also the claim about the loss of the aggregate of latecomers being smaller than the homesteader’s, as follows:

$$ \sum_{i\in L}\bigl(u_i(N)-u_i(E)\bigr) \;<\; u_H(E)-u_H(N) $$

So although he frames his theory as talking about preference-utilitarianism, he is committing himself to utilities being capable of being added and subtracted. This is cardinal utility. It is not preference-utilitarianism anymore. It assumes utilities have strong algebraic properties.

Lester downplays the strength of the claim. Even within the 2019 paper itself, Lester tries to make this commitment look like a minimal, rough claim that humans are broadly similar enough in their responses to allow for saying that, generally speaking, this comparison holds as stated. Lester devotes much more space to the issue of utility comparisons in the 2023 paper, as well as in his 2022 paper, “Avoiding Interpersonal Utility Comparisons in Eleutheric-Conjectural Libertarianism”. In those two places, he says that instead of comparing utilities interpersonally, we can do a thought-experiment and imagine ourselves to be in the position of each of the parties involved in the resource clash, as follows:

One can simply imagine oneself successively being on each of the various sides of any posited liberty-clashes (as one may sometimes be in real life). Or, if it seems significantly different and clearer, imagine oneself being in a game whereby one has an equiprobable chance of being in the situation of any of the people whose liberties are clashing. Then the specified task is to choose which remedies, rules, property, or claims (depending on which problem is being addressed) seem likely to minimise any overall, or average, initiated impositions on oneself. (Lester 2022, p. 2)

OK, so let’s account for Lester’s modesty in not claiming any mind-reading powers for himself. Read the same formula above, but instead of reading $u_j(\cdot)$ as the person $j$’s utility, read it as the utility of yourself when imagined in the position of the person $j$. We are still talking, necessarily, about cardinal quantities with strong algebraic properties, not mere ordinal value-scales.

However little knowledge of other people’s minds Lester is claiming, allowing this kind of comparison at all puts him under a lot of pressure from social-democrats, who can now argue that money is a greater utility to the poor than to the rich. That is, where $R$ is a rich person, $P$ a poor person, and $t$ is a transfer, the social-democrat can immediately run the familiar diminishing-marginal-utility argument:

$$ u_P(w_P+t)-u_P(w_P) \;>\; u_R(w_R)-u_R(w_R-t) $$

Arguing from parity, the social-democrat can say that this is roughly and generally true, without making strong claims about his ability to read minds, etc.; he can read $u_P(\cdot)$ and $u_R(\cdot)$ as the utility of himself when imagined in the position of a poor and a rich person, respectively, rather than the utility of the poor and the rich person themselves, respectively. The argument still seems to work. If that move is allowed for homesteading, there’s no reason why it isn’t allowed for redistribution.

In his reply to me, Lester had said that “social-democrats (like all statists) primarily need to understand economics better. That is what mainly explains why private property promotes welfare and forced transfers undermine it. But some philosophy can help too.” But the above comparison is legitimate in mainstream economics, which defends wealth transfers on precisely such claims (by means of a social welfare function). Libertarians typically appeal to Austrian economics to block the social-democratic argument, but Austrian economics blocks this argument, not by proving that the comparison holds in the other direction, but precisely by saying that these utility comparisons are illegitimate, both interpersonally and intrapersonally across regimes. The Austrians consistently hold to ordinal utility, without any cardinal comparisons in sight. Hence, libertarians cannot consistently appeal to Austrian economics against the social-democrat and at the same time allow themselves these comparisons in defending their property theory. So it is unclear to me how Lester can possibly defend his derivation of private property, although it had seemed so nice to me at first.

2.3. Does minimization of impositions allow for punishment and damages?

In my initial comment on Lester’s 2019 paper, I had somehow still been focusing on absence of impositions and had not quite noticed the move toward minimization of impositions in Lester’s derivations. This is a significant difference between his theory and mine, since my theory is strictly and absolutely deontological, but I was still charmed by what I saw as a parallel between our theories. Hence, I said that Lester’s theory “faces exactly the same problems” of defending “the practices of punishment, and compensation for damages, in the same way” as it defends property rights.

I now realize that this is not true, and I concede that Lester’s conception of liberty is coherent with a notion of punishment. Liberty, in Lester’s sense, does not by itself imply punishment, but aiming at it can give a good reason for punishment if we consider punishment a reactive imposition which can be helpful in minimizing initiated impositions. The helpfulness of punishment to this purpose is a distinct premise, but it is a ‘cheap’ premise, insofar as it is commonly held.

Lester’s papers on punishment, which he had linked to me, are also helpful:

2.4. Can minimization of impositions allow for both intellectual property and ordinary market competition?

It seems that Lester exposes himself to further objections with his defense of intellectual property, however, which was chiefly in his Against Against Intellectual Property: A Short Refutation of Meme Communism (written 2016).

For a given person S, if I can “constrain S’s want-satisfaction” merely by using my own materials to build an instantiation of S’s idea (presumably because S now has a market competitor in selling instantiations of the idea, and thus finds it more difficult to profit from the idea), it is not clear why ordinary market competitors (who compete in building instantiations of unowned ideas, such as a generic type of ice cream, or whatever) do not similarly impose constraints on each other’s want-satisfaction. That is, unless Lester appeals to the “imposed cost” vs “withheld benefit” distinction again, but this would clearly be building the theory of intellectual property into the liberty theory, and thus assuming his conclusion from the outset.

It is unclear how Lester could possibly defend the claim that competition to produce instantiations of unowned ideas produces a smaller total of impositions than competition to produce instantiations of owned ideas. And he doesn’t even try to develop such an argument: in arguing for intellectual property, Lester suddenly makes arguments from “the incentive to produce valuable ideas”, which has nothing to do with his original idea of minimizing imposed costs, and is hence irrelevant to his eleutherology.

3. Clarification of my own views

Having covered the above, I can now clarify my own views on welfare, rationality, and foundations.

3.1. Welfare nihilism

In my preliminary reply to Lester’s reply to my post about his 2019 paper, I said the following:

Due to my previous bad experiences with finding very unclear concepts at the core of all welfare theories, I have adopted a position of nihilism toward welfare theories, where I will criticize their use to defend policies I disagree with, but will also not use them to defend policies I do agree with. It is possible, in principle, that one of Lester’s linked texts can overcome my pessimism about welfare theories; we will see.

Having now looked at the many texts Lester linked from his post, my pessimism is unabated. Welfare theories are terrible and unhelpful. I must answer Lester’s complaint, however, when he said in part 2 of his later reply:

It is not psychologically possible to do this. We can’t help empathising. There is no way that you can honestly say that you have no idea whether a man screaming as he is being tortured has less welfare than someone sitting on a beach in the sunshine drinking a cocktail and smiling. It is just that your implicit theory of welfare is not formalised and precise.

I have no objection to this judgment! I am a logical behaviorist. I believe that the words “pain” and “agony” refer to exactly the former sorts of behaviors (screaming as you are being tortured) and “happiness” refers to exactly the latter sorts of behaviors (smiling). And it is an analytic truth that “happiness is a mental state that has more welfare than pain and agony”; someone would not be a competent language-user who did not agree to use these words in this way. But when someone applies the words pain or agony or happiness, or the relation has more welfare than, to mental states in the absence of indicating behaviors, then this is being unscientific; it may be inevitable to do this to some extent in practical life, but it would be reckless to build an important theoretical conclusion on such a judgment. And this is exactly what is being done in the comparisons of utility mentioned above, regardless whether they are done directly or via a thought-experiment: we are making a generalization about people generally being happier under one kind of institutional regime rather than in another. This cannot be defended.

Again, Lester had said (also in part 2):

A little normal human empathy is all that is required to see that a severely authoritarian society of great scarcity has less welfare than a relatively liberal (in the classical sense) one with great abundance.

Let us separate the claims about authoritarianism and about abundance.

  • Regarding abundance, this has actually been disputed in academic literature, in the theory of the original affluent society, where hunter-gatherers are said to have lower standards of living but also fewer wants, and hence can be considered affluent.
  • Regarding authoritarianism, every authoritarian regime claims that its specific interventions improve social welfare, even if authoritarianism in general doesn’t always do so.

I believe that both of these claims are wrong, but I do not believe that “a little normal human empathy is all that is required to see” this. Besides, Lester seems to believe that anarcho-capitalism has more welfare than every other regime, and while I am sympathetic to that idea (since it is flattering to my political views), still it takes more than “a little normal human empathy” to argue for it, if that can possibly be done. Again, social-democrats will equally claim that “a little normal human empathy is all that is required to see” that a society with a strong social safety net is happier than one without. The only way I can think to answer them is to follow the Austrians in telling these social-democrats that they are being unscientific in making such an utility comparison; it is up to Lester to try to do a better job, if he thinks he can do so.

3.2. Rationality

In my original post, I had said that “I believe welfarism in all its forms is irrational”. In his original reply to that, Lester linked a blog post arguing against the use of “irrational” to deride theories.

In reply to that post, I want to clarify that I did not mean this in the sense that it “reasons unsuccessfully” in some way.

I meant that welfarism is intrinsically opposed to the pursuit of truth in dialogical inquiry, due to how it permits violations of critical discussion norms in some contexts: e.g., an utilitarian believes that it is sometimes permissible to lie, and lying in critical discussions frustrates their goal of truth-seeking.

The welfarist may claim that his permissions are context-bound, i.e., he can only lie if he is not in the context of a critical discussion. But I can’t read his mind to tell whether he still believes himself to be in a critical discussion. Due to how people can’t read each other’s minds to know if the other person is about to believe himself to be in a circumstance where it is permissible to violate critical discussion norms, a moral theory which is compatible with the social possibility of truth-seeking dialogue must contain an absolute, context-free prohibition on all violations of critical discussion norms. This is a key element in my metaethics.

Maybe this sounds like an unusual way to say “irrational”. But I see reason as primarily the faculty of truth-seeking, and the truth ultimately cannot be sought without inquiry in critical discussions, as Agnes Callard argued in Open Socrates, and as Lester’s own critical rationalism requires.

3.3. Foundations

Similarly, my conception of “foundations” or “justifications” for a theory amounts simply to their defense in critical discussions; it is a dialectical conception. In this post, I have consistently talked about “defending” ideas and avoided talk about “ground”, “support”, “justify”, etc., to make that clearer.

In part 1 of his reply to my preliminary reply to his original reply to my original post about his 2019 paper, Lester expressed confusion as to why a natural-law theorist may be dialectically required to provide a metaethics to support his ethics:

I don’t see that they have any implied duty to do the “supporting” metaphysics. And that might imply an infinite regress as well.

This can only be clarified by appealing to how natural-law theories of ethics are actually criticized by their critics. Natural-law theories, broadly speaking, begin from a philosophical anthropology, which is a metaphysical account of human nature, and then derive axiology and deontology relative to the ideal standard of that nature. Sometimes there is a “state of nature” construct involved, as in Locke, but not always.

In chapter 6 of his textbook The Fundamentals of Ethics, Russ Shafer-Landau raises several common criticisms of natural-law theories of ethics:

  • That there may be no “human nature” shared by all humans, conceived either as “animal nature”, as “innate human traits”, or as “common human traits”; (pp. 83–85)
  • That the best account of human nature may involve no “natural purposes” (teleology); (pp. 86–90)
  • That arguments relying on natural-law, such as those against abortion or same-sex marriage, often rely on ambiguous definitions of terms like “humanity” or “marriage” that assume the truth of the conclusion they are trying to prove, thereby begging the question rather than solving the moral issue; (pp. 90–92)
  • More broadly, that nature provides no normative standard, since the only scientific natural laws are unbreakable descriptive laws such as those of physics, rather than the breakable prescriptive laws which natural-law theory appeals to. (pp. 92–93)

It is in order to answer such criticisms that a natural-law theorist must provide a defense of his metaphysical theories as being the best philosophical account of human nature, in a way that either motivates the adoption of teleology or defends the normative conclusions without using teleology, and so on for the other objections. Hence there is no regress, at least not simply from the demand for defenses of one’s arguments, which is an ordinary occurrence in philosophy; if it is somehow impossible to satisfy the critics of natural-law, this must be for some other reason.

Addition 2026-03-18: Lester replied to this post here; you may see that he commented the URL below also.

Thursday, March 5, 2026

Utilitarianism is the root of all evil

By utilitarianism I shall mean the same thing as hedonism or welfarism, to wit, the idea that there is some concept of welfare (or of ‘wellbeing’, ‘psychological happiness’, ‘pleasure’, ‘feeling good’, ‘valent experience’, etc.), which has ultimate moral importance. Here I include not only those who think only welfare has ultimate moral importance, but also whoever thinks more than one type of thing has ultimate moral importance, as long as welfare is allowed to take precedence over other concerns in at least some practical cases.

Ultimate, or terminal, moral importance is to be contrasted with instrumental moral importance. As an example of instrumental moral importance, a concept similar to ‘welfare’ can be held to be instrumentally morally important in some theory such as the remainder of this paragraph. Suppose that it is ultimately morally valuable for humans to exercise their faculty of reasoning as much as possible, and suppose further that there is some level of suffering which makes it impossible to reason. Then it is morally important, although only for the sake of reason (and hence instrumentally), that humans should experience that level of suffering as little as possible.

In speaking of ‘moral’ importance, I assume the Highest-Order Norm Thesis.

Utilitarianism, in this broad sense, is closely related to what Agnes Callard, in Open Socrates, referred to as the bodily command.

Illustration for this blog post, drawn by Nano Banana.

Contents

Utilitarianism vs. the pursuit of truth

Utilitarianism, at least in the narrow sense of axiological act-utilitarianism, is directly incompatible with the social practice of truth-seeking.

David Lewis has soundly argued that act-utilitarianism is not incompatible with following a linguistic convention of truthfulness, and hence with valuing speaking truthfully in everyday language; but the social practice of truth-seeking, or inquiry in dialogue, requires a truth-norm which is absolutely inviolable in every context, as I have shown.

Such an inviolable rule is something that act-utilitarians themselves admit is not supported by their theory, and indeed, it is often hailed as an advantage of act-utilitarianism, that it can justify officious lies when they will save lives, or whatever.

Hence, axiological act-utilitarians are in open opposition to the social possibility of the pursuit of truth; and I claim that this likely applies to many other forms of welfarism, hedonism, etc., since a rule-utilitarian will plausibly make a (suitably lawlike and universal) exception for officious lies. If welfare has terminal value and is allowed to even sometimes override concern for truth-seeking, we get morally wrong conclusions, as I have shown.

It is no wonder that there are many utilitarians who assign numbers to quantities of welfare, but who are wholly unconcerned with how those number assignments are to be supported (which cannot be done rationally, as Rothbard showed, although he incorrectly tried to rescue a non-numerical concept of welfare); for someone who is unconcerned with cooperative truth-seeking will also be unconcerned with meaningfulness of speech.

Utilitarianism vs. sound philosophy

Commitments very close to utilitarianism also materially imply, more or less, every single wrong opinion that has ever been held in philosophy and economics; the remaining paragraphs in this section will each give one major example of an implication of utilitarianism and link a reference to explain why it is wrong.

Misguided politics

Although there have been utilitarian libertarians such as David Friedman, their rotten foundations makes them structurally devoid of a principled theory of justice in property, and practically incapable of radicalism in strategy.

In fact, a plausible welfarist concern with making it forbidden for “any person to unilaterally, discretionarily, and foreseeably act in a way that would leave others with less advantage than they would have possessed had the agent made some other choice” (with advantage conceived of in welfaristic terms), plausibly implies the rejection of all external private property in moral principle, as Jesse Spafford has shown, so that luck-egalitarian claims to expropriation and redistribution would be justified. But such a rejection of private property in moral principle is also incompatible with the social practice of truth-seeking, as I have shown.

Socialist central planning, usually described with vague meaningless slogans like “according to need”, also tends to be conceived of in hedonistic terms; and it is impossible for socialist central planning to achieve its goals, as Ludwig von Mises showed. (No, computers cannot solve the problem Mises raised.)

Misguided personal choices

Wellbeing-sensitive consequentialism is also at the core of the Effective Altruism movement, which focuses on “efficient” charitable donations. But von Mises’s economic calculation problem, which makes socialist central planning impossible, also makes it impossible for charities to operate efficiently, as Nathan P. Goodman pointed out, although he supports giving to charity nevertheless.

Relatedly, when added to a plausible psychology of animals, utilitarianism implies moral concern for animal welfare, as Peter Singer has shown, to an extent that plausibly requires veganism. (I should note that animal rights activists often try to frame the historical recognition of the shared humanity of fellow humans, such as in the abolition of slavery and the liberation of women, as a “moral circle expansion” which may eventually expand further to include nonhuman animals; and this is because they are dishonest.) But such a concern for animal welfare, to such an extent, is in tension with the social practice of truth-seeking, which provides moral (highest-order) license for eating meat (regardless whether it comes from cruel factory farms), as I have shown. (It is no coincidence that animal-rights activists defend human rights infringements as a means to their cause. I have left open the possibility that a norm requiring veganism may be justified by a cultural, nonmoral, lower-order commitment, as with how violations of etiquette are forbidden but not in themselves immoral; this may happen with some religious forms of veganism.)

David Benatar’s antinatalism, which is bad for more or less the same reasons as animal-welfare-motivated veganism, is also defended from a welfare-sensitive axiology.

Misguided metaphysics

It is tempting to believe that the entities that a theory quantifies over are real entities; this is, in fact, required by neo-Quinean metaontologies. And since utilitarianism ascribes ultimate value to mental states of wellbeing, it quantifies over them, tempting utilitarians to be realists about mental states in a way that allows for them to be ranked in an order. Since it is unclear how human behaviors of happiness and sadness can be so ranked, this utilitarian-realist commitment tends to be a motivation for dualism in the philosophy of mind (so that pleasure and pain are qualia), or for identifying minds with their neural or computational features (so that pleasure and pain are neural or computational configurations). But all such opinions are irrational, since logical behaviorism is true instead and is rationally required, as I have shown.

Welfarist axiologies are also behind most formulations of the so-called “problem of evil” which motivates atheism, since it is much harder to formulate coherently in welfare-insensitive axiologies; and I have also proved atheism to be false.

Uncharitable remarks on utilitarianism

Being fair to utilitarianism is distinct from being charitable to it, as justice is distinct from charity. (I use ‘fairness’ and ‘justice’ interchangeably.)

If we are fair to utilitarianism, we shall uncharitably but fairly say that there is nothing at all to be correctly said in its favor; that it can only be motivated by an attitude of intrinsic irrationality which not only does not value truth-seeking, but indeed fiercely hates the pursuit of truth, and hates all truth because it is true, and spends its days seeking to believe falsehoods because they are false, and to forget any truths it may have learned; that to even get utilitarianism off the ground dialectically, you have to assume a whole edifice of lies about how language works, about how logic works, about how history works, etc.; that utilitarianism is, in itself, an edifice of lies, believed in by villains, for the purpose of murder; that the people who defend it are, to the extent that they defend it, a plague upon humanity, whose ideas have no value, and should never be listened to; that to the extent that they defend it, while it is, of course, a moral and economic tragedy when any one of them dies (as it is when any human being dies), still nothing of intellectual value is, to that extent, lost to those deaths, and in fact our theoretical understanding of the world is improved to an extent, as a consequence of their deaths, by no longer being marred with their confusions; that this is all true with absolute certainty beyond a shadow of a doubt, and that there are no exceptions.

These true, and perfectly fair, but nevertheless uncharitable things, are said to emphasize that a fair verdict on utilitarianism (by which, again, I mean the broad idea of a concept of wellbeing which has ultimate moral importance) is uniformly and hyperbolically negative, and that whenever anything good is said about utilitarianism, it comes from charity, not from justice.

We may, of course, in perfect fairness excuse many self-described utilitarians as not being culpable for their adherence to the utilitarian attitude – since they were duped, or confused, or dazed; but the ideal outcome, at any rate, is if every avowed adherent to utilitarianism (or welfarism, hedonism, etc.), renounces his chosen ideals, publicly execrates and condemns them, never looks back at them or considers them again, and censures all his colleagues if they ever again speak favorably of them, nevermind act upon them. It is a tragedy that this will not happen.

Charitably, we may say that utilitarianism at least seems unrelated to the overuse of probability theory in some of the communities where it is popular, although it might not be a coincidence that the same communities are attracted to two kinds of irrationality.

Comparison of a utilitarian and a deontologist, made with Nano Banana. The portrayal on the right is intended to portray whoever is a utilitarian in the very broad sense above, and hence includes positions that are sometimes said to be between deontology and consequentialism.